Last year, I got it in my fool head to see as many of the Oscar contenders as I could in the interest of gaining a better-formed opinion. But that was dumb, because it turned out that a lot of those contenders weren’t my kind of movie in the first place, so when I saw them I wasn’t too impressed. (I really detested Crash, for one thing.)
So this year, I decided I’d go see the ones that kind of looked appealing to begin with. I mean, heck, I’m not paid to see these, and I’m not an Oscar voter, so why should I see them in the theater? I might see them later, but my main focus here is to predict which ones will win, and I don’t need to have seen them to know that.
Without further ado:
Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
What will win: It’ll be The Departed, I think. A couple of years ago, Scorcese was up for The Aviator, and everyone said This Is The Year. It wasn’t. Scorcese, who’s never ever won, despite a lot of great movies, was shut out again. He’s the sentimental favorite this year, almost universally. It’ll be a huge upset if he does not win.
What should win: Personally, I think Babel, directed by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, was much, much better. Honest, gripping performances by everyone, well shot, well edited, everything. The Departed, to me, felt like a bunch of big-shot actors being hammy. It just didn’t work, and it paled even more when compared with the director’s other tough-guy films, like Goodfellas.
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Who will win: Whitaker was apparently phenomenal as Idi Amin. I heard one industry insider say that because in real life Whitaker is a soft-spoken nice guy, watching him play a despicable, amoral tyrant is a real treat – it’s called acting.
Who should win: From what I’ve heard, ditto. DiCaprio and Gosling (a first-time nominee) were good; O’Toole, who’s never won, doesn’t seem to stand a chance here, either. And Smith, as good as he was, unfortunately in a lesser film – it was sold as an Oscar hopeful and did not meet expectations, so he might suffer a backlash.
Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
Who will win: Almost certainly Mirren, who played Queen Elizabeth perfectly, according to Everyone in the World. Mirren’s been nominated three times, and this should be her first win.
Who should win: Who am I kidding? I saw one of the films. I will say this, though; Dench was beyond superb as the confused teacher. Great, great performance. Cruz won’t win, because actresses in foreign-language films almost never do, and not against this competition. Streep’s won a lot; Winslet has never won, despite five nominations. This won’t be her year.
Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Who will win: Hudson was apparently stunning in her role, both singing and acting. There’s a strong wave in her favor at the moment, and it’s hard to believe she won’t come away with the prize.
Who should win: Since I didn’t see Dreamgirls, I can’t say Hudson should win; however, of the others, I’d say Blanchett would be most deserving. It’s hard to say, though, because both Barraza and Kikuchi were tremendous. They sort of cancel each other out, though. I had my doubts about Blanchett playing a sorta-dumb pedophile schoolteacher, and she aced the role.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
Who will win: Barring a huge upset, it’ll be Murphy, who knocked ’em dead with his singing – you can forget “Party All the Time” ever happened.
Who should win: Probably Murphy. I didn’t like Wahlberg in The Departed; hammy does not equal awesome. Sorry, Marky. Wish I’d gotten to see Little Children and Blood Diamond.
Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorcese, The Departed
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Who will win: Scorcese, easily. If we got to see the voting breakdown, it’ll be something like 95% Scorcese.
Who should win: Inarritu, for reasons explained above. Excellent film. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the juice that Scorcese does at this point, since it’s such an early movie for him. And Eastwood won in this category just a couple of years ago with Million Dollar Baby. Greengrass’s film was (apparently) heartfelt and sincere, two characteristics the Academy loves, but he’s up against some stiff competition here. And many people believe that The Queen’s success was due more to Mirren than to director Frears.
So there you have it. Mark your ballots accordingly; the shindig begins in under two hours!
